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Shocking new economic data confirms it: The swing states are getting hammered


American Politics

Shocking new economic data confirms it: The swing states are getting hammered

President Trump and congressional Republicans are digging in hard against Democratic efforts to extend unemployment benefits to the jobless — even as their numbers climb into the tens of millions and we continue our slide into the worst economic calamity in nearly a century.If there’s any hope of getting Trump and Republicans to give in…

Shocking new economic data confirms it: The swing states are getting hammered

President Trump and congressional Republicans are digging in tough against Democratic efforts to extend welfare to the out of work– even as their numbers climb into the 10s of millions and we continue our slide into the worst economic disaster in nearly a century.

If there’s any hope of getting Trump and Republicans to give up and extend more help to those suffering financially, it may be this: New data reveals that, in regards to unemployment claims, the battlefield states are getting definitely hammered.

Some 2.4 million people filed jobless claims simply recently, bringing the total to around 38 million out of work claims due to the financial disaster let loose by the unique coronavirus. Some experts forecast the unemployment rate could top 30 percent, which is greater than throughout the Great Anxiety.

That has actually set off argument over whether to extend the extra $600 weekly in unemployment assistance that Congress passed in March (that’s on top of standard benefits), which extends through July.

Trump and Republicans are opposing an extension, arguing excessive assistance will dissuade the jobless from returning to work– never ever mind that the economy is largely in deliberate deep freeze, to restrict the coronavirus’s spread. Democrats, by contrast, argue that an extension is urgent for precisely that reason, and because this rolling catastrophe will just get far worse.

We now have a state-by-state breakdown of task losses, released by the Bureau of Labor Data. And it turns out the carnage in the battlefield states is genuinely severe.

One set of numbers from the BLS shows the overall tasks lost from completion of March to the end of April. That’s not completely up to date, given that we’re in mid-May, however it captures the huge scale of the shocks that shook the economy as it closed down, according to Mark Muro, an analyst at the Brookings Organization, who crunched these numbers for me.

The chart shows the total variety of jobs in each state as of the end of March, and then since the end of April. Then it reveals the total task loss, followed by the percentage drop:

As you can see, the destruction is remarkable. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida all lost over 1 million tasks each, and Ohio came very near to that. Michigan lost over one-fifth of its tasks– a massive blow, and Pennsylvania nearly did, too.

North Carolina lost over half a million tasks; Georgia lost nearly that many; and Wisconsin isn’t far behind. Biden probably will not make Georgia that close, however that state has a competitive Senate race, as does North Carolina (which will likewise be objected to in the presidential election).

” This has big implications for the existing standoff over joblessness assistance,” Muro told me. He added that such high levels of joblessness will drain pipes state budgets, indicating this has major implications for the argument over delivering more fiscal aid to those states, as well.

Muro recommended that such epic job losses in the battlegrounds “might scramble the political map,” and might lead to more “pressure on senators to release more aid as soon as possible.”

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The debate right now remains in an incredibly weird location. Some Senate Republicans are independently yielding that they will likely need to act to extend aid in some method.

However Trump appears dead-set versus this, although it’s frequently argued he does not share the very same ideological aversion to federal government aid for the financially devastated that many conventional Republican politicians and conservatives do. So holds the folklore of his “economic populism,” anyhow.

Why is Trump dug in? He and his consultants firmly insist that the economy and tasks will holler back quickly. “The states are opening up,” Trump says “It’s a transition to success.”

Possibly Trump is so persuaded he can drastically increase the economy again through large force of will and tweet– despite the fact that he’s stopped working to scale up robust screening, making it less likely people feel safe to resume activity– that he does not want to even act as if urgent brand-new infusions of help are needed.

Or perhaps Trump merely can not accept the management function of telling Americans things will be hard for a great long period of time, since this would be an admission of failure. As Paul Krugman puts it:

Trump can’t get beyond boosterism, firmly insisting that everything is fantastic on his watch. And he’s plainly still consumed with the stock market as the measure of his presidency.

What’s galling about this, as Krugman also notes, is that, for all the problems the federal government is having in delivering rescue cash, it does seem assisting to replace people’s earnings and softening extreme economic challenge.

If we’re really handling such pathologies on Trump’s part, perhaps the only thing that can puncture this bubble is the hazard these huge job losses posture to his reelection possibilities.

Or maybe Trump can simply tweet all these individuals back into employment rather.

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